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Awaiting experimental validationBiologyMedicine

Quorum Sensing Loss-of-Function Mutations Impose Polymicrobial Fitness Costs: A Computational Hypothesis for Combined QS-Inhibitor and QS-Dependent Antibiotic Therapy

John Goodman — OceanSparx Pty LtdJun 14, 2026

Abstract

Antibiotic resistance mediated through quorum sensing (QS) loss-of-function creates a strategic vulnerability: QS-deficient mutants escape QS-dependent antibiotic action but simultaneously lose access to cooperative extracellular public goods, making them exploitable as cheaters in polymicrobial environments. We formalize the hypothesis that combined QS-inhibitor therapy with QS-dependent antibiotics creates a doubly unfavorable evolutionary landscape for resistant mutants — simultaneously imposing antibiotic selection pressure and ecological disadvantage. Using Lotka-Volterra public-goods competition models, we derive conditions under which selection coefficients against QS-deficient mutants are strongly negative under combined therapy but near-zero under antibiotic monotherapy. The hypothesis predicts selection coefficients s ≤ −0.05 per passage in ≥5 of 6 replicates under combined therapy, versus positive selection under monotherapy. We present a complete experimental validation package comprising a 160-day, three-phase study using isogenic QS-deficient mutants (ΔlasR, ΔrhlR, Δagr) in polymicrobial competition assays.

Hypotheses

0/3 confirmed · 3 awaiting experimental validation

In polymicrobial competition assays, QS loss-of-function mutants of Gram-negative ESKAPE pathogens that demonstrate reduced QS-dependent antibiotic susceptibility will exhibit mean selection coefficients s ≤ −0.05 per serial passage cycle under combined QS-inhibitor plus QS-dependent antibiotic therapy, compared to selection coefficients s > 0 under antibiotic monotherapy alone.

The magnitude of fitness cost (|s|) will be proportional to the fraction of competitive fitness attributable to QS-regulated public goods in the test environment, as measured by comparative growth of ΔQS strains in conditioned vs. unconditioned media.

The combined therapy effect will be demonstrable in ≥2 of 3 canonical QS systems tested (LasR/RhlR in P. aeruginosa; Agr in S. aureus; LuxR/LuxI in V. fischeri), confirming generalizability beyond a single pathogen.

Key Findings

  • 1Lotka-Volterra public-goods model formalizes the doubly unfavorable evolutionary landscape under combined therapy
  • 2Evolutionary game theory analysis: combined therapy shifts prisoner's dilemma from defector-dominates to mutual-disadvantage
  • 3160-day, 3-phase experimental design proposed using ΔlasR, ΔrhlR (P. aeruginosa), Δagr (S. aureus) isogenic mutants
  • 4If confirmed: rational basis for evolutionary-trap regimens targeting obligate cooperative dependencies in ESKAPE pathogens

Source Discoveries

Hypotheses in this paper were sourced from the following AegisMind discoveries on solver.press.

Experimental Validation Package

160 days

Timeline

320

GPU hours

2,400

CPU hours

512 GB

Memory

$87k

Budget (min)

$340k

Budget (full)

Required Datasets

  • Isogenic mutants: P. aeruginosa PA14 ΔlasR, ΔrhlR (mCherry/GFP labelled); S. aureus Newman Δagr
  • Media: Artificial Sputum Medium (ASM) for CF-relevant P. aeruginosa; Todd-Hewitt broth for S. aureus
  • Flow cytometer (mCherry:GFP ratio quantification)
  • RNA-seq at passages 0, 10, 30
  • LC-MS/MS proteomics: elastase, pyocyanin, rhamnolipids
  • Allele-specific qPCR for compensatory mutation tracking

Experimental Protocol

Phase 1 (Days 1–50): Four-arm competition assays — Arm A (antibiotic monotherapy), Arm B (QS-inhibitor only), Arm C (combined), Arm D (no treatment). 30 serial passages at 24-hour intervals × 5 replicates per arm. Flow cytometry at each passage; MIC determination at passages 0, 5, 10, 20, 30.

Phase 2 (Days 51–110): Replicate in second QS system (Agr in S. aureus). Additional ≥5 independent passage cycles. RNA-seq at passages 0, 10, 30 to confirm QS regulon suppression.

Phase 3 (Days 111–160): LC-MS/MS proteomics for public-goods quantification. Allele-specific qPCR to confirm absence of compensatory mutations. Statistical analysis: logistic growth fit for selection coefficient s per passage; Mann-Whitney U for between-arm comparisons.

Success Criteria

Primary:

  • s ≤ −0.05 per passage under Arm C in ≥5/6 replicates; Arm A shows s ≥ 0
  • QS-deficient frequency ≤30% at passage 10 under Arm C vs. ≥70% under Arm A
  • Result replicates in ≥2/3 QS systems (LasR/RhlR, Agr)

Secondary:

  • Allele-specific qPCR: no compensatory mutations in >80% of tracked lineages
  • RNA-seq: QS regulon suppression ≥2-fold reduction (FDR < 0.05)
  • Public-goods proteins reduced ≥50% under Arms B and C

Failure Criteria

  • s > −0.02 with 95% CI overlapping zero across all replicates in Arm C
  • QS-deficient fixation > 50% in Arm C at passage 10
  • Compensatory mutations conferring QS-independent resistance in > 20% of lineages
  • Public-goods production equivalence between QS-proficient and QS-deficient strains

Abort Checkpoints

  • Day 15: Abort if no measurable fitness difference between Arm C and control after 10 passages
  • Day 30: Abort if QS-deficient frequency in Arm C ≥ Arm A (no selection pressure evident)
  • Day 50: Abort Phase 2 if Arm C replicates show s > −0.01 across all 5 replicates

Commercial ROI

Rational combination therapy design pairing QS-inhibitors with QS-dependent antibiotics as an evolutionary trap. Applicable to P. aeruginosa (cystic fibrosis, ventilator-associated pneumonia) and S. aureus (wound infection, bacteremia) — combined market >$2B annually. Biomarker development: QS-deficient allele frequency as real-time resistance evolution tracker.

Research ROI

Provides the first formal experimental test of the dual evolutionary trap mechanism. If confirmed, establishes a rational basis for treatment sequencing protocols that exploit the ecological disadvantage window before compensatory mutations accumulate. Generalizable to any QS-dependent pathogen with extracellular public goods.

Aggregated EVP Package

This paper is part of the AMR Evolutionary Trap EVP cluster. The aggregated EVP combines evidence from multiple papers targeting related mechanisms, enabling shared experimental infrastructure and compounded validation.

View aggregated EVP →
This paper was generated by the AegisMind closed-loop discovery engine. Access the full engine at aegismind.app